Empirical verification of groupthink theory

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Empirical verification of groupthink theory has been a difficult task, and one that few have been willing to attempt. In 1998, twenty-five years after its original publication, only a Handful—as few as eleven, by some count—empirical studies had been conducted (Esser, 1998). Turner and Pratkanis (1998) argue that laboratory verification of Janis’s theory is difficult because of the number of dependent and independent variables in the model, and because of the theoretical ambiguities. Furthermore, despite Janis’s attempts to clearly define the variables of his model, Turner and Pratkanis (1998) conclude that “researchers have little (or even conflicting) guidance from the theory about how to either operationalize experimental variables or code archival data” (p. 108).

There are not only challenges in conducting groupthink research, but challenges in the interpretation of results as well. Specifically, some argue that the theory is validated only in the presence of evidence for the full model—that is, when all antecedent conditions are present. This strict interpretation is rejected by those who favor an additive interpretation, arguing that groupthink becomes more prominent as the number of antecedent conditions increases (Esser, 1998; Turner & Pratkanis, 1998). Because no evidence has been found for either the strict or additive model, others propose a particularistic interpretation, suggesting that groupthink outcomes depend on the particular combination of antecedents. Paulus (1998) especially is critical of those who suggest the theory is “right” only if the full model can be validated. He states, “that would seem to be a rather stringent criterion for any theory. I have never heard of a theory that did not require modification subsequent to its presentation. Theories are temporary guides to understanding reality on the way to truth” (Paulus, 1998, p. 366).

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